E3SM Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Initialized Hindcasts/Reforecasts (E3SMv21-S2S)
Project Summary: When complete, the E3SMv21-S2S will be an 11-member set of 45-day initialized
hindcasts produced using the E3SM-v21 low resolution model (initialized every Monday
for years 1999-2020). These subseasonal-to-seasonal hindcasts are designed to explore Earth system predictability of weather and its most
critical drivers on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Subseasonal prediction fills the gap between weather forecasts and
seasonal outlooks. There is evidence that predictability on subseasonal timescales comes from a combination of atmosphere,
land, and ocean initial conditions (Richter et al. 2024). This work contributes to specific goals
of the DOE funded CATALYST project, and more broadly to RGMA, by providing
climate information with uncertainty estimates to support DOE’s energy
missions. The growing societal demand for advance warning of near-term climate
extremes takes place against a backdrop of ever-increasing anthropogenic
climate change. The field of initialized climate prediction on timescales from
subseasonal to decadal has grown to meet this demand. An analogous
effort using CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) carried out subseasonal (45-day long) reforecasts for the time
period 1999 to 2020 and are being used to carry out weekly real-time forecasts. Simulations and output follow the Subseasonal
Experiment (SubX) protocol. Reforecast and forecast data are freely available to the broader community.
(
CESM-Subseasonal Reforecasts and Forecasts) [Richter et al., 2024].
In addition to extensive hindcast output from all E3SM component models, E3SM-S2S includes historical reconstructions for the ocean, sea ice, and land component models; an experimental setup that can be replicated and/or modified; and python code for performing post-processing and skill assessment. Details are provided below.
The E3SM-S2S was produced by a collaboration between
the Cooperative Agreement To Analyze
variabiLity, change and
predictabilitY in the Earth SysTem (CATALYST) group at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and DOE researchers at the Los Alamos
National Lab (LANL). The project and the members of this collaboration were
supported under the Department of Energy
Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Regional and
Global Model Analysis (RGMA) and Earth System Model Development (ESMD)
components of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) Program.
This work was also supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR). A 2023-2024 ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) HPC computing
allocation award enabled the production of this dataset.
E3SM-S2S At A Glance
E3SMv21 model: ocean (MPASO, 1°, 61L); atmosphere (EAM, 1°(ne30), 72L); land (ELM); sea ice (MPASSI)
Hindcasts initialized weekly (Mondays) 1999 to 2020
45-day simulations
11-member ensemble
EAM initialization: ERA5 Reanalysis
MPASO initialization: GMPAS_JRA1-do forced ocean/sea-ice (FOSI) simulation
MPASSI initialization: GMPAS_JRA1-do forced ocean/sea-ice (FOSI) simulation
ELM initialization: CRU-NCEP forced land simulation
Data availability (TBD)
Reproducing E3SM-S2S:
The E3SM-S2S simulations were conducted on NERSC supercomputing
hardware. Bit-for-bit reproducibility may not be possible.
Machine: Perlmutter CPU nodes
Codebase: E3SMv2.1 (maint-2.1)
Initialization: Initialization files available on NERSC CFS: /global/cfs/cdirs/mp9/E3SMv2.1-S2S/
Compsets: WCYCL20TR; WCYCLSSP370
Resolution: ne30pg2_EC30to60E2r2
Model_start_type: hybrid from initialized conditions
Confluence
project website
Publications and Project Products:
The following paper documents the E3SM-S2S experimental design and provides a broad overview of the E3SMv21 model system skill:
Richter, J.H., Glanville, A.A., King, T. et al. Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 59
(2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00595-4.
Glanville, A.A., et al. Comparing S2S Prediction Skill in E3SM and CESM. Abstract. Fall Meeting AGU.
(2024). https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1675883 .
Contacts:
Yaga Richter [ jrichter@ucar.edu ]
Sasha Glanville [ sglanvil@ucar.edu ]
Nan Rosenbloom [ nanr@ucar.edu ]
Acknowledging Use of E3SM-S2S Data
E3SM-S2S uses E3SM version2.1. Reference: Smith et al.(2024): The DOE E3SM Version 2.1: Overview and Assessment of the
Impacts of Parameterized Ocean Submesoscales. (Submitted to GMD).
E3SM-S2S data will be available for download at XXXX. Please add your name to the E3SM-S2S analysis registry to help
us track who is using this resource. We request that you cite both the data DOI (XXX) as well as the dataset description
paper in work that makes use of E3SM-S2S. Finally, we welcome collaboration and information sharing, so please consider joining the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group and presenting your work at upcoming ESPWG meetings.
Project Summary: When complete, the E3SMv21-S2S will be an 11-member set of 45-day initialized hindcasts produced using the E3SM-v21 low resolution model (initialized every Monday for years 1999-2020). These subseasonal-to-seasonal hindcasts are designed to explore Earth system predictability of weather and its most critical drivers on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Subseasonal prediction fills the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. There is evidence that predictability on subseasonal timescales comes from a combination of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions (Richter et al. 2024). This work contributes to specific goals of the DOE funded CATALYST project, and more broadly to RGMA, by providing climate information with uncertainty estimates to support DOE’s energy missions. The growing societal demand for advance warning of near-term climate extremes takes place against a backdrop of ever-increasing anthropogenic climate change. The field of initialized climate prediction on timescales from subseasonal to decadal has grown to meet this demand. An analogous effort using CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) carried out subseasonal (45-day long) reforecasts for the time period 1999 to 2020 and are being used to carry out weekly real-time forecasts. Simulations and output follow the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) protocol. Reforecast and forecast data are freely available to the broader community. ( CESM-Subseasonal Reforecasts and Forecasts) [Richter et al., 2024].
In addition to extensive hindcast output from all E3SM component models, E3SM-S2S includes historical reconstructions for the ocean, sea ice, and land component models; an experimental setup that can be replicated and/or modified; and python code for performing post-processing and skill assessment. Details are provided below.
The E3SM-S2S was produced by a collaboration between the Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the Earth SysTem (CATALYST) group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and DOE researchers at the Los Alamos National Lab (LANL). The project and the members of this collaboration were supported under the Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) and Earth System Model Development (ESMD) components of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) Program. This work was also supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A 2023-2024 ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) HPC computing allocation award enabled the production of this dataset.
E3SM-S2S At A Glance
Reproducing E3SM-S2S:
The E3SM-S2S simulations were conducted on NERSC supercomputing hardware. Bit-for-bit reproducibility may not be possible.Publications and Project Products:
The following paper documents the E3SM-S2S experimental design and provides a broad overview of the E3SMv21 model system skill:
Contacts:
Acknowledging Use of E3SM-S2S Data
E3SM-S2S uses E3SM version2.1. Reference: Smith et al.(2024): The DOE E3SM Version 2.1: Overview and Assessment of the Impacts of Parameterized Ocean Submesoscales. (Submitted to GMD).
E3SM-S2S data will be available for download at XXXX. Please add your name to the E3SM-S2S analysis registry to help us track who is using this resource. We request that you cite both the data DOI (XXX) as well as the dataset description paper in work that makes use of E3SM-S2S. Finally, we welcome collaboration and information sharing, so please consider joining the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group and presenting your work at upcoming ESPWG meetings.