E3SM Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (E3SMv21-SMYLE)
Project Summary: The E3SM-SMYLE is a set of initialized
hindcasts produced using the E3SM-v21 low resolution model (initialization
years 1980-2020). These hindcasts were specifically designed to explore Earth
system predictability at multi-year timescales using forecast lead times
ranging from one month to two years. This work contributes to specific goals
of the DOE funded CATALYST project, and more broadly to RGMA, by providing
climate information with uncertainty estimates to support DOE’s energy
missions. The growing societal demand for advance warning of near-term climate
extremes takes place against a backdrop of ever-increasing anthropogenic
climate change. The field of initialized climate prediction on timescales from
subseasonal to decadal has grown to meet this demand. Multi-year Earth system
prediction falls ‘between the cracks’ of traditional seasonal and decadal
prediction efforts, offering great promise for new research. An analogous large
ensemble of multi-year initialized hindcasts using the Community Earth System
Model (CESM2) (CESM-SMYLE) has provided significant contributions to our understanding of climate predictability on multi-year timescales [Yeager et al., 2022].
In addition to extensive hindcast output from all E3SM component models, E3SM-SMYLE includes historical reconstructions for the ocean, sea ice, and land component models; an experimental setup that can be replicated and/or modified; and python code for performing post-processing and skill assessment. Details are provided below.
The E3SM-SMYLE was produced by a collaboration between
the Cooperative Agreement To Analyze
variabiLity, change and
predictabilitY in the Earth SysTem (CATALYST) group at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and DOE researchers at the Los Alamos
National Lab (LANL). The project and the members of this collaboration were
supported under the Department of Energy
Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Regional and
Global Model Analysis (RGMA) and Earth System Model Development (ESMD)
components of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) Program.
This work was also supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR). A 2023-2024 ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) HPC computing
allocation award enabled the production of this dataset.
E3SM-SMYLE At A Glance
E3SM model: ocean (MPASO, 1°, 61L); atmosphere (EAM, 1°(ne30), 72L); land (ELM); sea ice (MPASSI)
Hindcasts initialized quarterly (1st of November) 1970 to 2019
28-month simulations
20-member ensembles
EAM initialization: ERA5 Reanalysis
POP2 initialization: GMPAS_JRA1-do forced ocean/sea-ice (FOSI) simulation
CICE5 initialization: GMPAS_JRA1-do forced ocean/sea-ice (FOSI) simulation
CLM5 initialization: CRU-NCEP forced land simulation
Data availability (TBD)
Data availability on NERSC CFS: /global/cfs/cdirs/mp9/archive/v21.LR.SMYLE
Reproducing E3SM-SMYLE:
The E3SM-SMYLE simulations were conducted on NERSC supercomputing
hardware. Bit-for-bit reproducibility may not be possible.
Machine: Perlmutter CPU nodes
Codebase: E3SMv2.1 (maint-2.1)
Initialization: Initialization files available on NERSC CFS: /global/cfs/cdirs/mp9/E3SMv2.1-SMYLE/inputdata/e3sm_init
Compsets: WCYCL20TR; WCYCLSSP370
Resolution: ne30pg2_EC30to60E2r2
Model_start_type: hybrid from initialized conditions
Confluence
project website
Publications and Project Products:
The following paper documents the E3SM-SMYLE experimental design and provides a broad overview of the E3SMv21 model system skill:
Yeager, S. G., N. Rosenbloom, S. Glanville, …. (2024): The E3SM-Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system
using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 21. In prep.
The following paper documents the companion CESM-SMYLE experimental design and provides a broad overview of the CESM2 model system skill:
Yeager, S. G., N. Rosenbloom, S. Glanville, X. Wu, I. Simpson, H. Li, M. J. Molina, K. Krumhardt, S. Mogen, K. Lindsay, D. Lombardozzi, W. Wieder, W. M. Kim, J. H. Richter, M. Long, G. Danabasoglu, D. Bailey, M. Holland, N. Lovenduski, W. G. Strand, and T. King (2022): The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Geosci. Mod. Dev., 15, 6451-6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022
Contacts:
Steve Yeager [ yeager@ucar.edu ]
Nan Rosenbloom [ nanr@ucar.edu ]
Acknowledging Use of E3SM-SMYLE Data
SMYLE data will be available for download at XXXX. Please add your name to the E3SM-SMYLE analysis registry to help us track who is using this resource. We request that you cite both the data DOI (XXX) as well as the dataset description paper (Yeager et al. 20xx) in work that makes use of E3SM-SMYLE. Finally, we welcome collaboration and information sharing, so please consider joining the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group and presenting your work at upcoming ESPWG meetings.
Project Summary: The E3SM-SMYLE is a set of initialized hindcasts produced using the E3SM-v21 low resolution model (initialization years 1980-2020). These hindcasts were specifically designed to explore Earth system predictability at multi-year timescales using forecast lead times ranging from one month to two years. This work contributes to specific goals of the DOE funded CATALYST project, and more broadly to RGMA, by providing climate information with uncertainty estimates to support DOE’s energy missions. The growing societal demand for advance warning of near-term climate extremes takes place against a backdrop of ever-increasing anthropogenic climate change. The field of initialized climate prediction on timescales from subseasonal to decadal has grown to meet this demand. Multi-year Earth system prediction falls ‘between the cracks’ of traditional seasonal and decadal prediction efforts, offering great promise for new research. An analogous large ensemble of multi-year initialized hindcasts using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) (CESM-SMYLE) has provided significant contributions to our understanding of climate predictability on multi-year timescales [Yeager et al., 2022].
In addition to extensive hindcast output from all E3SM component models, E3SM-SMYLE includes historical reconstructions for the ocean, sea ice, and land component models; an experimental setup that can be replicated and/or modified; and python code for performing post-processing and skill assessment. Details are provided below.
The E3SM-SMYLE was produced by a collaboration between the Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the Earth SysTem (CATALYST) group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and DOE researchers at the Los Alamos National Lab (LANL). The project and the members of this collaboration were supported under the Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) and Earth System Model Development (ESMD) components of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) Program. This work was also supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A 2023-2024 ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) HPC computing allocation award enabled the production of this dataset.
E3SM-SMYLE At A Glance
Reproducing E3SM-SMYLE:
The E3SM-SMYLE simulations were conducted on NERSC supercomputing hardware. Bit-for-bit reproducibility may not be possible.Publications and Project Products:
The following paper documents the E3SM-SMYLE experimental design and provides a broad overview of the E3SMv21 model system skill:
The following paper documents the companion CESM-SMYLE experimental design and provides a broad overview of the CESM2 model system skill:
Contacts:
Acknowledging Use of E3SM-SMYLE Data
SMYLE data will be available for download at XXXX. Please add your name to the E3SM-SMYLE analysis registry to help us track who is using this resource. We request that you cite both the data DOI (XXX) as well as the dataset description paper (Yeager et al. 20xx) in work that makes use of E3SM-SMYLE. Finally, we welcome collaboration and information sharing, so please consider joining the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group and presenting your work at upcoming ESPWG meetings.