iPOGS Project
Improving Prediction and Projection of Gulf of Mexico Sea-Level Changes Using Eddy-Resolving Earth System Models
iPOGS Project Summary: Current predictions and projections of future sea-level changes are based on CMIP-class climate model simulations. Although this class of models is capable of simulating global sea-level rise and its basic spatial patterns, they are unable to robustly and accurately predict or project future regional and local sea-level changes because of their limitation in representing complex coastline and bathymetry features and regional ocean circulations with their coarse (~100 km) resolutions. More specifically, sea-level changes within the Gulf of Mexico are closely linked to changes in the Loop Current and its eddies, which cannot be resolved by CMIP-class models. This project will address this fundamental issue by using a global eddy-resolving (~10 km) version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR) combined with its submesoscale-eddy-permitting (~3 km) regional version (R-CESM). A particular focus area of the proposed research will be on advancing understanding of the Gulf sea-level changes associated with steric variability and ocean dynamics, including changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Specifically, the research team proposes to: 1) conduct a set of CESM-HR century-long future climate simulations under different emission scenarios to project long-term (up to year 2100) sea-level change in the Gulf; 2) perform an ensemble of CESM-HR decadal prediction simulations to predict shortterm (1-5 years) sea-level change; 3) carry out a set of R-CESM dynamical downscaling simulations to refine the CESM-HR predictions and projections; and 4) develop probabilistic sea-level prediction and projection products and ready-to-use prediction systems along the Gulf coast for integration into The Nature Conservancy’s online Coastal Resilience Tool for local, regional and state decision making; and 5) contribute to federal and non-federal end-user's efforts in predicting and projecting coastal sea-level changes by bringing a unique set of modeling and application capabilities to significantly address outstanding issues related to sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico.
Model Version: CESM 1.3
Resolution: High Resolution
Years: 1920-2100
Experiments:
- RCP8.5 Members 1, 2, and 3
- RCP6.0
- RCP4.5
- RCP2.6
Machine: TAMU Frontera
Project lead: Ping Chang (TAMU), Steve Yeager (NCAR), and Chris Shepard (TNC)
Data acquisition: Data can be accessed at TAMU or NCAR (see /glade/campaign/collections/cmip/CMIP6/iHESP/). Data is currently available upon request.
Funding: National Academies Gulf Research Program
Diagnostics
| Brief Description | Diagnostics | Standard CVDP Diagnostics | Gulf of Mexico Specific Diagnostics | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100.001 (HR HF-TNST with RCP8.5 - member #1) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the first member. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100.002 (HR HF-TNST with RCP8.5 - member #2) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the second member. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100.003 (HR HF-TNST with RCP8.5 - member #3) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the third member. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100 (HR HF-TNST - 3-member RCP8.5 ensemble) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the three member ensemble. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100 (HR HF-TNST with RCP6.0) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the case with RCP6.0. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100 (HR HF-TNST with RCP4.5) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the case with RCP4.5. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100 (HR HF-TNST with RCP2.6) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnostics are for the case with RCP2.6. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.ne120_t12.cesm-ihesp-hires.1920-2100 (HR HF-TNST - RCPs ensemble) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnsotics are for the RCPs ensemble. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.rcp85.ozone.ne120_t12.006 (Ozone withholding simulation) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnsotics are for the ozone withholding simulation. | |||
| b.e13.HF-TNST.rcp85.ozone.ne120_t12.3mbr.ens (Ozone withholding simulation) |
CVDP diags | GoM diags | These diagnsotics are for the ozone withholding simulation. | |||
The CVDP package was used to create these diagnostics.
Time Frequencies Saved
Publications and Project Products:
Li, D., Chang, P., Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Castruccio, F. S., Small, J., et al. (2022). The impact of horizontal resolution on projected sea-level rise along US east continental shelf with the Community Earth System Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002868. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002868
Li, D., Chang, P., Wu, L., Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Castruccio, F. S., Gopal, A., Kurian, J. (submitted 2023). Enhanced sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico projected by ocean-eddy resolving Community Earth System Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.